核能系列报告（1）：核电全球复苏，铀价中枢预计整体上行

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power industry, indicating a recovery in global nuclear power and an upward trend in uranium prices [1]. Core Insights - Nuclear power technology is continuously upgrading, providing a clean and efficient energy solution. The electrification process and the demand for high-quality electricity driven by AI are reinforcing the strategic position of nuclear power [1][7]. - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing a revival, with increasing uranium demand anticipated due to renewed interest in nuclear energy following geopolitical tensions and the need for energy independence in Europe [7][24]. - Supply constraints are evident, with short-term increases in uranium supply relying on the resumption of production from idled mines. A significant supply gap may emerge around 2030 if new projects do not come online [7][55]. - The report predicts a sustained upward trend in uranium prices, supported by a historical supply-demand gap and recent adjustments in production by leading suppliers [7][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Clean and Efficient Energy Source - Nuclear power primarily relies on fission reactions using U235 as fuel, generating significant energy compared to traditional sources [11]. - Current commercial nuclear projects are mostly based on second and third-generation technologies, with ongoing advancements towards fourth-generation designs [7][16]. 2. Global Nuclear Revival and Growing Uranium Demand - The global nuclear power capacity is approximately 397 GW, with 72 GW under construction. Projections suggest that by 2040, capacities could reach between 552 GW and 966 GW depending on various scenarios [24][53]. - The demand for uranium is expected to increase by 118% by 2040, driven by the resurgence of nuclear power and the need for stable energy sources amid rising electricity consumption from AI technologies [7][53]. 3. Supply-Demand Gap and Rising Uranium Prices - The report highlights that the uranium supply is primarily dependent on newly mined resources, with a significant portion of the current supply coming from existing stockpiles [55]. - The cumulative supply-demand gap from 2015 to 2024 is estimated at around 100,000 tons, with uranium prices rising from approximately $20 per pound in 2016 to around $80 per pound currently [68]. - Future projections indicate that if production does not meet demand, uranium prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory, supported by strategic resource management and market dynamics [68].