农产品日报：现货供应充足，豆粕偏弱震荡-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report's Core View - The domestic supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the soybean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced压榨, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new corn is concentrated on the market. Northeast corn has good yield and quality, and prices are rising due to traders' price - raising acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight due to farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality, leading to price increases. Feed enterprises have weak inventory - building意愿, while deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and raise prices to purchase. The overall supply is slightly loose, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3022 yuan/ton yesterday, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2419 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.49%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Abiove expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be a record 1.777 billion tons, with unchanged forecasts for crushing and export volumes [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still loose, with high oil - mill inventories. The soybean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced压榨 but remains high. Downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The price was supported by US soybean prices and import costs last week [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2175 yuan/ton yesterday, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Market Information: As of November 16, 2025, the US corn harvest rate was 91%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 94%. In October, corn imports reached 360,000 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase, but the cumulative imports from January to October were only 1.29 million tons, a 90% year - on - year decrease [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market in Northeast and North China. Northeast corn has good yield and quality, and prices are rising due to traders' acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising because of farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises have weak inventory - building意愿 and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and raise prices to purchase [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]