光大期货能化商品日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the crude oil market is weak, and concerns about increased supply are pressuring oil prices, which are expected to move in a volatile manner [1][3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively healthy downstream bunker fuel demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near term [3]. - The asphalt price is currently viewed with a bearish outlook due to a decrease in both supply and demand, with the supply decline being smaller than the demand decline [3]. - The PTA price is expected to be strongly volatile due to the implementation of TA device maintenance and the resilience of downstream demand [5]. - The ethylene glycol price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment, with short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [5]. - The rubber price is expected to move in a volatile manner due to increased supply pressure and a combination of stable domestic and weak overseas demand [7]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - level volatile trend, with supply expected to decline if Iranian devices stop due to gas restrictions [7]. - The polyolefin price is expected to be weakly volatile at the bottom, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand [9]. - The PVC price is expected to show a weakly volatile performance due to high supply - demand pressure and high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. The EIA inventory report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory but an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories. There are developments in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Russia's oil production is approaching the OPEC+ quota. The market is worried about increased supply, and oil prices are volatile [1][3]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures prices declined. The Chinese refinery's operating rate increased, and Singapore is expected to receive more low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain high [3]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the asphalt futures price fell slightly. The December production plan decreased compared to November, and inventory and operating rates declined. The price is under pressure due to supply - demand factors [3]. - Polyester: TA prices rose, EG prices fell slightly, and PX prices rose. There are new device startups and overhauls, and the cancellation of the BIS certification in India is beneficial for exports. TA prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and ethylene glycol prices will have a wide - range adjustment [5]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. Rubber inventory increased, production increased seasonally, and overseas demand declined. The price is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [7]. - Methanol: The spot price is stable, and downstream product prices vary. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7]. - Polyolefins: The price of polyolefins has a negative profit margin. It is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile at the bottom [9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The PVC market price decreased in different regions. Supply remains high, and demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on November 20, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 340 million barrels to 424.2 million barrels in the week ending November 14, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 50 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [17][18][19]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [35][40][41]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][54]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [65][67][70]. - 4.5 Production Profits: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone, with a phone number, fax, and customer service hotline provided [83].