煤炭行业周报：10月煤炭产量同环比双降，印尼拟削减26年产量目标-20251120

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the coal industry, indicating a projected increase in stock prices relative to the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - In October, coal production in China saw a decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a total output of 407 million tons, representing a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to October, coal production reached 3.973 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1]. - The demand for electricity, pig iron, and cement in October showed mixed results, with electricity production increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, while pig iron and cement production decreased by 7.9% and 15.8%, respectively. Cumulatively, from January to October, electricity and pig iron production saw slight declines of 0.4% and 1.8%, while cement production fell by 6.7% [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has emphasized the need to stabilize energy production and supply, particularly during peak demand periods, and to ensure the safety of energy supply during adverse weather conditions [1]. - The China Coal Industry Association forecasts that Indonesia's coal production will decrease to 750 million tons in 2025, a 10.3% year-on-year decline, with a target reduction for 2026 set below 700 million tons. This is expected to tighten the supply further, especially as domestic production faces limitations due to regulatory measures [1]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain volatile but generally upward due to tight supply and strong winter demand, with the Qinhuangdao coal price reported at 827 RMB per ton as of November 14, reflecting a 2.4% increase month-on-month [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - October coal production in China was 407 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month. Cumulative production from January to October was 3.973 billion tons, up 1.5% year-on-year [1]. - Demand for electricity rose by 7.3% year-on-year in October, while pig iron and cement production fell by 7.9% and 15.8%, respectively [1]. Regulatory Environment - The NDRC has called for measures to ensure stable energy supply and safety during peak demand periods, particularly in winter [1]. Price Trends - Coal prices are expected to remain under upward pressure due to tight supply conditions, with the Qinhuangdao coal price at 827 RMB per ton as of mid-November [1].