债市策略思考：权益长牛如何重塑转债格局？

Core Insights - The demand side indicates that the long bull market in equities, combined with the stock-bond seesaw effect, may lead to continued outflow of funds from the bond market, while the demand for convertible bonds remains resilient [1] - On the supply side, the prevalence of strong redemptions in convertible bonds is likely to continue, but issuance is expected to improve starting in 2026, leading to a potential new-old transition in market structure [1] - From a long-term perspective, convertible bonds are expected to enter a slow bull market alongside equities, but their performance is likely to be weaker than stocks and stronger than pure bonds [1] Demand Side Analysis - The stock-bond seesaw effect suggests that funds may continue to flow out of the bond market, with solid returns from equity markets driving this trend [2] - The core advantage of fixed income plus funds lies in their diversified asset allocation, which balances the risk-return characteristics of stocks and bonds [2] - Despite a slight outflow of funds recently, the demand for convertible bonds remains robust, with the share and scale of secondary bond funds significantly expanding in Q3 2025 [8] Supply Side Analysis - The convertible bond market saw a rapid contraction post-2015 bull market, with the market balance dropping to just 13.3 billion yuan by the end of 2015, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan from the previous year [11] - As the equity bull market continues, some existing convertible bonds will likely have strong redemption windows, and the prevalence of strong redemptions is expected to persist [11] - Starting in 2026, the issuance of convertible bonds is projected to improve, with an estimated supply of around 50-60 billion yuan, slightly better than in 2025 [16] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The historical valuation trends of convertible bonds generally follow the movements of the equity market, with the premium rate primarily driven by balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds [19] - In a bull market for equities, investors may prefer balanced and equity-oriented convertible bonds to capture higher returns [19] - The current market faces challenges due to limited capacity for fund absorption and high price valuations, which compress the yield space for convertible bonds [19][20]