2026年财政政策展望：财政将如何发力

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to balance growth, social welfare, and risk prevention, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to exceed 4%[1] - New local special bonds are projected to be around CNY 4.6 trillion, while ultra-long-term special government bonds may be issued at approximately CNY 1.5 trillion[1] Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, the fiscal structure shifted towards "people's livelihood," with a mild recovery in revenue but continued constraints[2] - Total broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, with a focus on social welfare and consumption incentives[5] Infrastructure Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by debt resolution and effective investment strategies[3] - Approximately CNY 3 trillion in special bonds will be needed for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments in 2026[3] Consumer Spending and Social Welfare - Consumer spending is projected to grow at around 4.5%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and birth subsidies[4] - The expected increase in social welfare spending includes a CNY 1,080 billion rise in pensions and CNY 1,000 billion for birth subsidies, which will stimulate consumption[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, sluggish recovery in consumer spending, and rising local debt pressures[5] - The fiscal space may be constrained, impacting the effectiveness of the proposed measures[5]