黑色商品日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of building materials continues to decline, the inventory decline has widened, and the apparent demand has decreased. The Mongolian government's proposal to increase coal exports to China may lead to an increase in coal supply, which has an impact on the overall black commodities. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. - The iron ore market shows that supply is increasing, demand is facing pressure as the loss range of steel mills expands, and inventory is rising. In the short term, ore prices will show a volatile trend [1]. - The coking coal market has limited supply growth, and downstream procurement has become more cautious after the end of the phased replenishment. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. - The coke market has improved supply as coke enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased after price increases, and demand has slightly improved with the resumption of production of steel mills. However, due to the off - season in the terminal market and poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. - The manganese - silicon market has cost support, but production has declined, demand from steel procurement is limited, and inventory has reached a new high. The short - term market is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and production in major producing areas [1]. - The silicon - iron market has cost support, but production has decreased due to large losses, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts in major producing areas and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 24,300 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. National building material production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all declined. It is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with 250,000 lots traded and an increase of 10,000 lots in positions. Supply increased, demand (iron - water production increased but steel - mill losses expanded), and inventory increased. Short - term ore prices will show a volatile trend [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1139.5 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,093 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased. Supply growth was limited, and downstream procurement became more cautious. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1639 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 592 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. Supply improved, and demand slightly increased, but the short - term market is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Manganese - Silicon - The manganese - silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5642 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous day, and an increase of 31,861 lots in positions. Cost has support, production has declined, demand is limited, and inventory has reached a new high. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [1]. Silicon - Iron - The silicon - iron futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5462 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous day, and a decrease of 417 lots in positions. Production has decreased due to losses, demand is weak, and cost has support. It is expected to fluctuate with the overall black market [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 46.0, up 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of iron ore was 36.5, up 2.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 rebar contract was 150.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 01 iron ore contract was 52.9, up 0.5 [4]. - Profit and Spreads: The rebar futures profit was - 98.5, down 13.9; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 207.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][8][9][10][14]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the historical basis of main contracts for various black commodities from 2022 - 2026 [15][16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts show the historical spreads of different contract periods for various black commodities from 2020 - 2026 [24][25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. from 2020 - 2025 [42][43][44][45][47]. - Rebar Profits: Charts show the historical profits of rebar main contracts including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 - 2025 [46][48][49][51][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the black industry [54]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [55].