光大期货软商品日报-20251120

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.7% to 63.94 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.52% to 13,485 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 11,574 lots to 553,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,320 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The macro - level is the focus in the international market. The Fed's meeting minutes showed some participants thought there should be no rate cut in December, pushing the dollar index above 100. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend. Currently, during the relatively quiet macro - level period, the market focuses more on fundamentals. In the short term, supply pressure is a significant issue, and cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly. The supply peak will last for some time, pressuring cotton prices. The downstream textile enterprises' operating load remains relatively stable. Overall, in the short term, Zhengzhou cotton has pressure above and limited downside space, remaining in a volatile pattern [1]. - For sugar, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons due to increased production. The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only grow by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The supply - demand gap in the 2024/25 season was 2.92 million tons. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi is 5,600 - 5,660 yuan per ton, and the old sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,450 - 5,500 yuan per ton, with new sugar at 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of processed sugar factories is 5,750 - 5,890 yuan per ton, with some down 20 yuan per ton. After the rebound last Friday, the raw sugar futures price has closed above 14.5 cents per pound for 4 consecutive trading days. With no new news from Brazil and the northern hemisphere's production increase already well - known, if it doesn't reach India's export price, Thailand will be the main supplier. Without new negative news, raw sugar shows signs of bottom - building. In the domestic market, with new sugar on the market and higher - than - expected imports in October, market confidence is low, and prices continue to break down. In the short term, the pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to the import data of syrup and premixed powder. If there is no significant reduction, the futures price will continue to seek the bottom [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sub - group 1: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,294 yuan, down 100 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,557 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan, and the national average is 14,779 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 48 yuan, down 6 yuan. Some data for sugar, such as the main - contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou, are missing [2]. Sub - group 2: Market Information - On November 19, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,486, down 900 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1,150 [2]. - On November 19, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,557 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,816 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,831 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,871 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [2]. - On November 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.5, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.7, up 0.1 [3]. - On November 19, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,428, down 183 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 183 [4]. Sub - group 3: Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [6][9][11][14][17].