Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 4.97% to 99,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 88,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 1,450 yuan/ton to 86,500 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 79,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 155 tons to 26,766 tons [2]. - On the supply side, production remained flat while imports increased. The weekly production increased slightly month-on-month, and the domestic production in November changed little compared to the previous month. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China increased by 46% month-on-month to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate from ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in November increased by 4% month-on-month to 114,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days have dropped to a new low of 28.1 days since the futures listing, with the downstream inventory decreasing at a faster pace [2]. - In November, the inventory continued to decline rapidly, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a low level. The price of ore remained firm. The strong terminal expectations and the rising prices of related materials increased the demand for inventory replenishment in each link and for raw materials. The market opened lower and closed higher on November 21. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 yuan mark and the position situation. In the short term, it may still fluctuate strongly. In the future, first, as the price rises, the spot trading has become sluggish, but the supply side is expected to increase the operating rate to a certain extent, and the gap in December may narrow compared to November; second, there was a mismatch between the terminal performance in October and market expectations, and there may be an off - season in the power sector in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year; third, the actual resumption of production of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi is still uncertain, with a 10 - working - day document publicity period, and attention should be paid to new market information after the 20th; fourth, the current weighted contract position of lithium carbonate is still large, and position disturbances need to be vigilant [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 99,060 yuan/ton, up 5,640 yuan [4]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,086 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,625 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,575 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 88,900 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 1,450 yuan [4]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 79,080 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 83,850 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,630 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.1 US dollars [4]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 148,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [4]. - Spreads: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 9,820 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 5,018.76 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan [4]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. For example, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) increased by 500 yuan/ton [4]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained stable, with only a few showing small increases, such as the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) increasing by 0.01 yuan/Wh [4]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [5][7] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11] - Spreads: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [15][17] - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from March to November 2025 [35][37] - Production Cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][41]
碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 20 日）-20251120
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-20 05:13