Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are appropriate pullbacks [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory front - running" after the US government's restart and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. With the absence of key inflation and employment data, the market has shifted from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the US dollar's rebound and lowering US Treasury yields. The financial attributes of precious metals have been continuously strengthened. However, the impact of the expected difference after front - running should be警惕 [7]. - Domestic Macro: In October, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend overall, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals has not been reflected. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak funds in place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan of local government's unused quota withdrawals implemented in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [7]. - Asset Views: The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are pullbacks in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.2 Market Performance of Various Asset Classes - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4565.2, up 0.22% daily, - 0.77% weekly, - 1.43% monthly, - 1.14% quarterly, and up 16.43% this year; the SSE 50 futures closed at 3011, up 0.45% daily, - 0.64% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, 0.74% quarterly, and up 12.43% this year; the CSI 500 futures closed at 7054.8, down 0.35% daily, - 2.59% monthly, - 3.23% quarterly, and up 23.92% this year; the CSI 1000 futures closed at 7298.2, down 0.73% daily, - 1.00% weekly, - 0.95% monthly, - 1.46% quarterly, and up 24.74% this year [3]. - Treasury Futures: The 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102,462, down 0.03% daily, 0.01% weekly, - 0.08% monthly, 0.09% quarterly, and down 0.50% this year; the 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.88, down 0.04% daily, 0.00% weekly, - 0.17% monthly, 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.62% this year; the 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.425, down 0.07% daily, - 0.23% monthly, 0.54% quarterly, and down 0.46% this year; the 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 116.09, down 0.38% daily, - 0.06% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, 1.92% quarterly, and down 2.314% this year [3]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index was at 99.5932, unchanged daily, up 0.31% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, - 8.19% this year; the euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1581; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was 155.525, up 0.64% weekly, 0.98% monthly, 5.14% quarterly, - 1.07% this year; the central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0872, up 16 pips daily, 47 pips weekly, - 8 pips monthly, - 183 pips quarterly, - 1012 pips this year [3]. - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.55, unchanged daily, up 8 bp weekly, 9 bp monthly, 10 bp quarterly, - 20 bp this year; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.82, up 0.6 bp daily, 0.4 bp weekly, 2.3 bp monthly, - 4.3 bp quarterly, 0.1 bp this year; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.12, down 1 bp daily, - 2 bp weekly, 0.1 bp monthly, - 4 bp quarterly, - 43 bp this year; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.54, up 1 bp daily, 0 bp weekly, - 0.02 bp monthly, - 2 bp quarterly, 21 bp this year [3]. - Overseas Commodities: For example, COMEX gold was at 4067.4, up 0.55% daily, - 0.42% weekly, 1.35% monthly, 4.62% quarterly, and up 54.11% this year; NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 60.57, up 1.42% daily, 1.03% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, - 2.98% quarterly, - 11.72% this year [3]. - Domestic Commodities: For example, domestic gold was at 937, up 2.01% daily, - 1.70% weekly, 1.64% monthly, 7.16% quarterly, and up 51.72% this year; the Shanghai - Europe container shipping line was at 1640.1, down 2.26% daily, 2.19% weekly, 5.57% monthly, - 0.16% quarterly, - 27.33% this year [2][4]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Views - Finance: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner; stock index options are expected to be volatile; Treasury futures are expected to be volatile [8]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [8]. - Shipping: The Shanghai - Europe container shipping line is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline [8]. - Black Building Materials: Most varieties such as steel, coal, and building materials are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with some like aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, while oils and fats are expected to rise in a volatile manner, and some agricultural products like live pigs and sugar are expected to fall in a volatile manner [11]. - Agriculture: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with some like natural rubber and cotton expected to be volatile, and some like live pigs and sugar expected to fall in a volatile manner [11].
中信期货晨报：贵金属迎来反弹，其他商品涨跌互现-20251120
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-11-20 06:21