黑色金属数据日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market's sentiment has cooled, and trading volume has weakened. The steel price may gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and the prices are under pressure. The prices will continue to be under pressure due to the excess supply and demand pattern [3][5]. - The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the macro - sentiment is strong. The inventory will continue to accumulate, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On November 19, for far - month contracts: RB2605 closed at 3116.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 18.00 yuan; HC2605 closed at 3281.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 11.00 yuan; I2605 closed at 755.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 2.50 yuan; J2605 closed at 1795.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; JM2605 closed at 1210.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 32.50 yuan [1]. - For near - month contracts: RB2601 closed at 3070.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; HC2601 closed at 3277.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 6.00 yuan; I2601 closed at 791.50 yuan/ton with a rise of 6.00 yuan; J2601 closed at 1639.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 27.00 yuan; JM2601 closed at 1139.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 33.00 yuan [1]. - On November 19, the spread between HC and RB was 207.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 11.00 yuan; the ratio of RB to I was 3.88 with a fall of 0.02; the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.44 with a rise of 0.02; the threaded steel disk profit was - 113.23 yuan/ton with a fall of 13.93 yuan; the coking disk profit was 123.47 yuan/ton with a rise of 15.44 yuan [1]. Steel - The futures price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the spot trading volume declined. The market's initiative to chase up was still weak. Before early December, the risk preference was differentiated. The steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill's profit shrinks, the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating, and the prices are under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market sentiment of coking coal has weakened, with most auction prices falling. The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. In November, the coal price is under downward pressure, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to the expected reduction of steel mills' production, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider participating in the spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or using option strategies to assist spot sales [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - spread options to protect spot positions [9]. - For coking coal and coke, take a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [7][9]. - For iron ore, hold short positions [9].