Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue to oscillate strongly, but the risk of a high - level correction should be noted. The bullish sentiment driven by the capital side and the improvement in fundamentals resonate, but the lack of follow - up in the spot market may restrict the upside space. The price may face a phased adjustment under certain circumstances. It is expected to remain strong in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the fluctuation center in the range of 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On November 19, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 99,300 yuan/ton, up 5,780 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark and reaching a new high since June 2024. The basis further weakened to - 8,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,780 yuan/ton [1] - The open interest of the main contract increased to 503,000 lots, and the trading volume soared to 1.767 million lots, indicating that funds are accelerating into the market to drive up prices [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The price of spodumene concentrate remained flat at 8,670 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose 100 yuan/ton to 4,565 yuan/ton. The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at a high of 75.34%. The production capacity of the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining is 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, but the short - term supply increase is limited [2] - Demand side: From November 1 - 9, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased 5% year - on - year but increased 16% month - on - month. The demand for energy storage and power batteries remained resilient. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials increased, and the cell production schedule improved month - on - month, supporting lithium carbonate consumption [2] - Inventory and warrants: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons. The spot market transaction was light, but the expectation of accelerated inventory reduction in the futures market fermented, and the warrant pressure was marginally relieved [2] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue to oscillate strongly, but the risk of a high - level correction should be noted. The price may face a phased adjustment if new energy vehicle sales do not meet expectations or the warrant pressure becomes obvious before delivery. It is expected to remain strong in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the fluctuation center in the range of 95,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On November 19, the main lithium carbonate contract was 99,300 yuan/ton, up 6.18% from the previous day; the basis was - 8,600 yuan/ton, down 125.13% from the previous day; the open interest of the main contract was 503,132 lots, up 3.88%; the trading volume was 1,767,428 lots, up 18.80% [5] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 90,700 yuan/ton, up 1.11% from the previous day; the market price of spodumene concentrate remained flat at 8,670 yuan/ton; the market price of lepidolite concentrate was 4,565 yuan/ton, up 2.24% from the previous day [5] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 148,500 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from the previous day; the price of power ternary materials was 143,050 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 38,165 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Spot Market Quotations - On November 19, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 89,837 yuan/ton, up 1,870 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream enterprises were rational and cautious in procurement, and the overall market transaction was rare. The lithium salt plant maintained a high operating rate, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the level of October [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption - From November 1 - 9, the national new energy passenger vehicle market retail was 265,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The national new energy vehicle wholesale was 306,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 59% [7] 3.3 Industry News - On November 19, most concept stocks in the lithium - battery industry chain rebounded, and many stocks such as Rongjie Co., Ltd. and Yongshan Lithium Industry hit the daily limit. The main lithium carbonate futures contract exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton for the first time since June 2024 [9] - At the "Tenth International Summit on Power Battery Applications (CBIS2025)", many entrepreneurs said that solid - state batteries are the ultimate direction of power batteries, but solid - liquid hybrid batteries are the current realistic breakthrough for industrialization. The application scenarios of lithium batteries are expanding, but there is caution about the rapid implementation of solid - state batteries [9] - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, which is a key step in its strategic transformation [10]
碳酸锂日报：储能热度吸引资金涌入，碳酸锂基差存在修复需求-20251120
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-20 06:17