蛋白数据日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - If there is no obvious weather problem, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, which may drag down the pricing of the soybean meal futures. It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The USDA's November supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the压榨 at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels. The bullish impact was less than expected [6] - According to 30NB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian crops in 2025/26 is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 68.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and 66.1% in the same period last year. The five - year average is 57% [6] - Pay attention to the relatively dry weather expected in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline from November to December, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal is relatively cost - effective. Recently, downstream trading of soybean meal has been cautious, but the提货 performance is good [6] Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [6]