航运衍生品数据日报-20251120

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [5] - Date: November 20, 2025 [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Spot Freight Index - Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): Current value is 1451, down 2.92% from the previous value of 1495 [5] - China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI): Current value is 1094, up 3.39% from the previous value of 1058 [5] - SCFI - US West Coast: Current value is 1823, down 17.59% from the previous value of 2212 [5] - SCFIS - US West Coast: Current value is 1238, down 6.85% from the previous value of 1329 [5] - SCFI - US East Coast: Current value is 2600, down 8.71% from the previous value of 2848 [5] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Current value is 1417, up 7.11% from the previous value of 1323 [5] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Current value is 1357, down 9.77% from the previous value of 1504 [5] - SCFI - Mediterranean: Current value is 2029, unchanged from the previous value [5] Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices: EC2506 at 1382.0 (down 0.22%), EC2608 at 1490.1 (down 1.29%), EC2610 at 1110.0 (down 0.18%), EC2512 at 1763.3 (down 0.35%), EC2602 at 1640.1 (down 2.26%), EC2604 at 1162.7 (down 1.43%) [5] - Contract Positions: EC2606 at 1582 (down 3), EC2608 at 1212, EC2610 at 2520, EC2512 at 9568 (down 864), EC2602 at 40244 (up 1384), EC2604 at 15944 (down 201) [5] - Monthly Spreads: 12 - 02 at 123.2 (up 31.8), 12 - 04 at 600.6 (up 10.7), 02 - 04 at 477.4 (down 21.1) [5] Group 3: Market News and Events - Holiday Arrangement: The last trading Monday in February 2026 for container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9 [6][8] - Geopolitical Event: Iran carried out a maritime attack near the Oman Gulf targeting Israel [6] - Shipping Route Change: CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 is directly passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal instead of rounding the Cape of Good Hope as scheduled [6] Group 4: Spot Price and Market Logic - Spot Prices: In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL 2850, 00CL 2300, CMA 3150, MSC 2350, HML 2500, YML 2550, ONE 2650; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL 3250, ONE 2450 (MSK's final December quote was 2500) [7] - Market Logic: There are still expected 1 - 2 rounds of price increases during the peak season. The price increases in early December conflict with the price differentiation in late November. The loading situation in November needs to be monitored to see if it can support the December price hikes. The timing and magnitude of the peak price in December are uncertain [7] Group 5: Contract Adjustment and Strategy - Contract Adjustment: The final trading day of the container shipping index (European line) futures EC2602 is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price is now calculated based on the weighted average of the underlying index prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, instead of February 9, 16, and 23. This adjustment is favorable for the EC2602 contract, but investors should avoid chasing high prices [8] - Investment Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the EC2512 contract is gradually losing trading value [9]