美联储“第三使命”：背景、经验、争议与影响

Group 1: Background of the Fed's "Third Mission" - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of promoting moderate long-term interest rates was established in the 1977 Federal Reserve Act but has been largely overlooked in recent discussions[5] - On September 3, 2025, new Fed Governor Stephen Milan's reference to the "third mission" during a congressional hearing led to significant market reactions, with 10-30 year Treasury yields dropping by approximately 30 basis points[2][8] - Milan argues for a substantial rate cut, suggesting that the appropriate policy rate should be lowered from 4.26% to 2.49% based on non-monetary factors like rent and trade policies[16][13] Group 2: Central Bank Intervention Experiences - Historical interventions by central banks (US, Japan, Eurozone) typically occur during major economic crises, primarily to alleviate liquidity issues and create a low-interest environment[22] - Tools for controlling long-term bond rates include lowering policy rates, forward guidance, asset purchases, and balance sheet adjustments, with asset purchases showing the most significant effectiveness[22] - While these interventions can reduce fiscal costs, they also carry risks such as potential high inflation, asset price distortions, and conflicts between monetary and fiscal authorities[23] Group 3: Controversies Surrounding the "Third Mission" - There is debate over how to define "moderate" long-term interest rates, with estimates of the neutral rate varying widely[3] - The effectiveness of the "dual mandate" in achieving the "third mission" is questioned, especially as current long-term bond yields appear higher than what is considered moderate[3] - Concerns exist regarding whether lowering bond yields could lead to higher inflation, reflecting a conflict between monetarist views and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL)[3] Group 4: Market Implications of Practicing the "Third Mission" - In the short term, discussions around the "third mission" may trigger expectations of monetary easing, thereby lowering medium to long-term bond yields[2] - The actual impact on long-term yields remains uncertain and is contingent on future inflation trends and fiscal policies in the US[2] - The implementation of the "third mission" could weaken the Fed's independence and contribute to a narrative of "de-dollarization," potentially leading to a weaker dollar and benefiting gold and non-US assets[2]