Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its external sales, with a notable recovery in overseas markets, while domestic sales are expected to stabilize [8] - The company's revenue for FY26H1 was HKD 8.045 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to previous periods [7] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 40.4%, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [7][8] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue forecast for the upcoming years is as follows: - 2024A: HKD 18.411 billion - 2025A: HKD 16.903 billion - 2026E: HKD 16.953 billion - 2027E: HKD 17.631 billion - 2028E: HKD 18.513 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be -8% for 2025A, 0% for 2026E, 4% for 2027E, and 5% for 2028E [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2024A: HKD 2.302 billion - 2025A: HKD 2.063 billion - 2026E: HKD 2.193 billion - 2027E: HKD 2.321 billion - 2028E: HKD 2.433 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -10% for 2025A, 6% for 2026E, 6% for 2027E, and 5% for 2028E [2] Market Performance - Domestic sales in the Chinese market for FY26H1 were HKD 4.203 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, but the decline has significantly narrowed compared to FY25H2 [7] - Online sales showed strong performance with a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while offline sales decreased by 12.3% [7] - The North American market revenue for FY26H1 was HKD 2.161 billion, a slight increase of 0.3%, demonstrating strong resilience amid rising international trade barriers [5] - Revenue from Europe and other markets for FY26H1 was HKD 0.765 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [5] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross profit margin increased to 40.4%, benefiting from a decrease in average unit costs of key raw materials such as leather, chemicals, and steel [8] - However, the company faced increased tariff costs for exports to the United States, which rose from HKD 6.65 million to HKD 78.83 million year-on-year [8]
敏华控股（01999）：FY26H1点评：收入降幅收窄，内销线上增长靓丽