EBSCN·2025-11-20 08:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 84.3 HKD, while the current price is 63.5 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 356 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, slightly exceeding the consensus expectation of 353 billion RMB. The core business revenue grew by 19.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 54.7%, which is below the expected 55.2% due to a 24% increase in revenue-sharing costs. However, it improved by 0.4 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [1]. - Operating profit increased by 69.9% year-on-year to 53 billion RMB, while adjusted net profit rose by 26.3% to 49.9 billion RMB, surpassing the consensus estimate of 48.3 billion RMB [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 201 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus of 198.7 billion RMB. The introduction of AI-driven models contributed approximately 4-5% incremental revenue [2]. - Other services, including e-commerce, generated 59 billion RMB in revenue, a 41.3% increase year-on-year, also surpassing expectations [2]. - E-commerce GMV reached 3,850 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year growth, aligning closely with the consensus of 3,839 billion RMB [2]. - Live streaming revenue was 95.7 billion RMB, a modest 2.5% increase year-on-year, falling short of the expected 97.9 billion RMB [2]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from optimized advertising and enhanced AI capabilities, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 slightly raised to 207.0 billion, 244.2 billion, and 277.7 billion RMB respectively [3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 20.5% for 2023, 11.8% for 2024, and 12.1% for 2025 [3][7].