瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For the corn market, the USDA report is slightly bearish, but the recent strength of US soybeans and wheat has boosted the price of US corn. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast region has increased, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price increase has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the starch market, the supply pressure has increased with the increase in new - season corn supply and industry operating rate. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and the downstream demand is acceptable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price has declined in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of corn starch is - 116,653 hands, and that of corn is - 43,793 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 69,337 hands, and those of corn starch are 12,453 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 343 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 429.75 cents per bushel, down 5.75 cents per bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,550,059 contracts, an increase of 6,994 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 81,307 contracts, a decrease of 30,121 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,278.82 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,560 yuan/ton, 2,800 yuan/ton, and 2,730 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The import CIF price of corn is 2,034.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively. The corn inventories in southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 86.6 million tons, 124 million tons, and 273.5 million tons respectively, with the deep - processing inventory decreasing by 6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, a decrease of 2,020 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2,015 million tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 27 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 67.29% and 60.89% respectively, with the starch enterprise operating rate decreasing by 2.59 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.2% and 7.69% respectively, with the 60 - day historical volatility decreasing by 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are both 7.99%, with an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil's corn export volume in November 2025 is expected to reach 6.36 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's level. The estimated sown area of US corn in 2026 is 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres or 3.8% compared to 2025. The US corn harvest is almost over, and the short - term supply pressure is high [2].