瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is slightly convergent and demand is generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and that of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,530 yuan/ton, and that of the alumina futures main contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2,732 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 9,251 lots to 338,582 lots, and that of alumina decreased by 14,819 lots to 411,305 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum canceled warrants remained unchanged at 55,300 tons, and the total alumina inventory remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [2]. - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation increased by 25 dollars/ton to 2,814.5 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 546,075 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,952 lots to 4,291 lots, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.08 to 7.65 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,560 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 670 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.93 dollars/ton to - 32.88 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of alumina increased by 3 yuan/ton to 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton, and the alumina production decreased by 13.40% to 786.50 million tons [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 21.49 million tons to 704.31 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 million tons to 46.85 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the import quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton, and the export quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. - The export quantity of alumina decreased by 7.00 million tons to 18.00 million tons, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance increased by 1.45 million tons to - 10.54 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina increased by 12.93 million tons to 18.93 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.10 million tons to 59.70 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 98.24% [2]. - The production of aluminum products decreased by 20.60 million tons to 569.40 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.82 million tons to 60.83 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 2.00 million tons to 50.00 million tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots remained unchanged at 126.00 million tons, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.34 to 92.43 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 168.20 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 5.25 million vehicles to 327.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.07% to 11.80%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.03% to 10.24% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0044% to 10.51%, and the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options increased by 0.0408 to 1.41 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed that there was a serious divergence among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged in the remaining time of 2025, while some believed another rate cut in December was likely appropriate. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [2]. - As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing investigated the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing, emphasizing accelerating the transformation and upgrading, promoting innovation, and developing new quality productivity [2]. - The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration", advocating promoting the optimization of production capacity structure and building a collaborative development ecosystem [2].