Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-20 09:12Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On November 20, 2025, the HC2601 contract showed weak consolidation. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 80.73%. Downstream demand rebounded, and inventory shifted from an increase to a decrease. Overall, the weakening of furnace materials reduced cost support, and market investment sentiment was relatively sluggish, resulting in a weak and volatile market. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward. It is recommended for short-term trading with attention to risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,267 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the position of the HC main contract was 1,152,598 lots, a decrease of 44,323 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -64,809 lots, an increase of 15,264 lots; the spread between HC1 - 5 contracts was -5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan. - The daily warehouse receipt of HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 146,388 tons, a decrease of 4,179 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 217 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,970 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,125.92 million tons, an increase of 231.11 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 36.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 622.15 million tons, a decrease of 4.41 million tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 116.66 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points. - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 316.01 million tons, an increase of 2.35 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.73%, an increase of 0.60 percentage points. - The inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.02 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 324.09 million tons, a decrease of 8.91 million tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, a decrease of 149 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, an increase of 0.0829 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles was 3.3221 million vehicles, an increase of 0.0957 million vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a decrease of 1.3396 million units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a decrease of 0.7499 million units [2]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's October meeting showed that "several" officials said that a rate cut in December "was likely" to be appropriate, while "many" officials thought a December rate cut might not be appropriate. "Most" officials believed that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks. - According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 - 16, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 886,000 vehicles, a 14% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 20.142 million vehicles, a 7% year-on-year increase [2].