瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term port reverse - flow to the mainland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be high, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The high - inventory state may continue to suppress the port methanol market, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be focused on. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly this week, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2016 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 137 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192.03. The main contract's open interest is 1,427,833 lots, a decrease of 22,788; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 191,775 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,581, a decrease of 584 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 1,985 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 5. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 232 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, a decrease of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.56 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.19 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, a decrease of 25,700 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 15.94 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91. The monthly import volume is 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate is 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate is 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate is 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate is 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate is 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.63%, a decrease of 1.35; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.35%, an increase of 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31 [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both East and South China regions saw inventory reduction. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is less than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has increased [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average start - up rate increased slightly. The positive demand from downstream olefin enterprises has a certain positive driving effect on the de - stocking of upstream enterprises, and the inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline. The methanol port inventory decreased this week. Due to the lack of domestic supply and the support of imported goods flowing back, the提货 at East China social warehouses was good, and the overall downstream rigid demand was stable [2] Things to Pay Attention to - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and port inventory on Wednesday [2]