Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-20 09:07Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the support at the 290,000 - yuan level. The macro - situation shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates within the year has decreased. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily but with limited increments, while imports from Africa and Australia have declined unexpectedly. The supply growth concern has been alleviated due to a significant drop in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October. On the smelting side, raw material shortages are severe, and refined tin production is restricted. On the demand side, high tin prices have dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises. Technically, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears as positions decline and prices fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 292,030 yuan/ton, down 1,340 yuan; the 12 - January contract closing price is - 500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,945 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 24,513 lots, down 3,132 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,357 lots, up 158 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,115 tons, up 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,258 tons, up 266 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 5,960 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 291,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 291,610 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is - 1,870 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 dollars/ton, up 105.01 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 281,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 188,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - The Fed meeting minutes show a serious divergence among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December. The number of those who think there is no need for further rate cuts this year is more than those who support rate cuts, and some centrists depend on data. There is almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The US BLS will not release the October non - farm payrolls report but will incorporate relevant data into the November report, which will be released on December 16 [3].