Huachuang Securities·2025-11-20 09:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][28]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the theme of "anti-involution," highlighting a verification period for revenue and performance elasticity. It recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have recently been upgraded to "Strong Buy" due to their strong performance indicators and potential for significant earnings elasticity [3][6]. - The report also highlights J&T Express, which saw a 79% year-on-year increase in Southeast Asia parcel volume in Q3, benefiting from high regional demand and the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to stabilize domestic market profitability [3][6]. - SF Express is viewed positively due to its accelerated operational strategies leading to increased revenue growth, with the highest parcel volume growth year-to-date. The report suggests that the company's free cash flow can be sustainably optimized, making it an attractive investment after recent stock price adjustments [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In October, the express delivery industry achieved a parcel volume growth rate of 7.9%, completing 17.6 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Cumulatively, from January to October, the industry completed 162.68 billion parcels, up 16.1% year-on-year [6][8]. - The industry's revenue in October reached 131.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with cumulative revenue from January to October at 1,217.41 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year. The average revenue per parcel in October was 7.48 yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [6][8]. Company Performance - In October, SF Express led the industry with a year-on-year parcel volume growth of 26.3%, followed by YTO Express at 12.8%, while Shentong Express and Yunda Express experienced lower growth rates [6][8]. - SF Express also led in revenue growth for October, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, while Shentong Express and YTO Express followed with 11.8% and 9.0% respectively [6][8]. - The report notes that Shentong Express had the highest year-on-year increase in average revenue per parcel at 2.18 yuan, while SF Express saw a significant decline of 10.0% year-on-year to 13.18 yuan [6][8].