2026年转债年度策略：转债去伪存真，宜稳中求进

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes the need for a cautious yet progressive approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting that the market may experience increased volatility and pressure on valuations in 2026 compared to 2025 [1][2] - The report indicates that the A-share index rose by 25% and the convertible bond index increased by 18% as of November 17, 2025, driven by a stable domestic economy and favorable external liquidity conditions [4][13] - It is projected that the market in 2026 may face fluctuations, and the favorable conditions seen in 2025 may not be replicated, with limited new positive factors expected [5][31] Group 2 - The report outlines that the convertible bond market is under valuation pressure, with the median price of convertible bonds at 132.98 yuan and a median conversion premium of 28%, both indicating high valuation levels [6][36] - The analysis of investor behavior shows that while funds have increased their holdings in convertible bonds, insurance companies have reduced their positions, leading to a temporary balance in the market [6][40] - Six potential investment themes for convertible bonds in 2026 are identified, including opportunities in AI hardware infrastructure, the transition of AI from hardware to applications, and structural inflation in the chemical industry [7][44][45] Group 3 - The report highlights that the economic indicators suggest a potential decline in economic growth for 2026, with social financing growth rates decreasing from 9.0% in July to 8.5% in October 2025 [19][20] - Market valuations are noted to be at a neutral to high level, with the PE ratio at 22.13 and the PB ratio at 1.82 as of November 18, 2025, indicating a historical high valuation context [22][29] - The report suggests that the convertible bond market may experience amplified volatility due to the current high valuations and changing investor dynamics [32][36]