瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather in major Asian producing countries, causing ICE raw sugar futures to decline on Wednesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.04 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.66 cents per pound [2]. - The China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast. This is mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an estimated total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and nine in Guangxi have started production, 17 fewer than the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start of production. However, sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 402,945 lots, an increase of 14,936 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 57,812 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; that of Brazilian sugar was 4,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835,090 hectares, a decrease of 12,860 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49%. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 26.66%. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 2.4188 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, an increase of 959,200 tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 15.917 million tons, a decrease of 1.841 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 7.48%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 7.35%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.02%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 35,900 tons of aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 17029011), 1,700 tons of other solid sugars, syrups, artificial honey, and caramel without added flavors or colorants (HS code 17029090), and 29,700 tons of flavored or colored aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 21069061), with a total of 67,300 tons for the three types of syrups. The import of simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar, and other sugars with a sucrose content of over 50% (HS code 17029012) was 3,200 tons, and that of mixtures with other food raw materials (HS code 21069062) was 45,000 tons, with a total of 48,200 tons for the two types of premixes. The total import of the above - mentioned various types was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [2].