南华期货工业硅、多晶硅企业风险管理日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually reach its peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will be alleviated, with supply - side pressure gradually reducing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillating stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited short - term downward space for costs with low profit valuations increasing the probability of supply - side shutdowns [4][5]. - Negative factors include declining production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening the demand side [5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus of the polysilicon market is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of November's concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation. High volatility and risks are involved, and investors are advised to be cautious [7]. - Positive factors are the potential for industry - wide capacity integration and clearance plans to improve the industrial structure [8]. - Negative factors are that if the integration and clearance plans fail to materialize, inventory will likely continue to accumulate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 9075 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 315 yuan (-3.35%) and a weekly decline of 70 yuan (-0.77%) [9]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 574,345 lots, a daily decrease of 181,387 lots (-24.00%) and a weekly increase of 281,866 lots (96.37%) [9]. - The open interest of the main contract is 273,978 lots, a daily decrease of 32,691 lots (-10.66%) and a weekly increase of 6,220 lots (2.32%) [9]. Spot Data - The prices of 99 and 553 industrial silicon in Xinjiang are both 9000 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly increase of 150 yuan (1.69%) [16]. - The price of the 421 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 9200 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly increase of 100 yuan (1.10%) [16]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots (-0.11%) from the previous period [27]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2,175 yuan (-3.98%) and a weekly decline of 1,745 yuan (-3.22%) [30]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 304,835 lots, a daily decrease of 56,703 lots (-15.68%) and a weekly increase of 26,919 lots (9.69%) [30]. - The open interest of the main contract is 134,292 lots, a daily decrease of 25 lots (-0.02%) and a weekly decrease of 9,734 lots (-6.76%) [30]. Spot Data - The price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.15 yuan (0.29%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers' price index is 1.28 yuan/piece, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) [43]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,175 yuan from the previous day (-79.82%) and an increase of 1,685 yuan from the previous week (-75.39%) [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7,500 lots, a decrease of 20 lots compared to the previous day [53].