Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar was weak, with a daily decline of 1.01%. Although demand improved, its sustainability was questionable. Supply was also rising, and the fundamentals remained poor. With relatively low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and demand performance should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was weakly volatile, with a daily decline of 0.55%. Thanks to demand improvement, the supply - demand pattern improved and inventory decreased again. However, supply pressure remained, demand resilience was questionable, and the positive effect was limited. With low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and steel mill production should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore was volatile, with a daily decline of 0.32%. Although demand rebounded, its sustainability was uncertain, and supply remained high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market did not improve, and prices were still under pressure. The short - term support from the switching of arbitrage logic was a relative positive. It was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and steel performance should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the tower crane utilization rate per day was 57.0%, and the maximum lifting moment utilization rate was 57.8%, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 495.02 points, 2.29 points lower than the previous month and 72.78 points lower than the same period last year [7]. - In October, the sales of some first - grade energy - efficient household appliances increased by over 10%. The sales of smart health equipment increased by over 20%, smart wearable devices by about 4%, and organic food by over 8%. New - energy passenger vehicle retail sales increased by 7.3%, with a penetration rate of 57.2%. From January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% [8]. - The Donghua Iron and Steel's project of integrating and reorganizing Chunxing Iron and Steel for reduction replacement and transformation and upgrading was nearly fully put into production. The total investment was 21 billion yuan, covering 3,800 mu. A 1,690 - cubic - meter blast furnace, with an investment of 640 million yuan, was put into operation in September 2024. Two 110 - ton electric furnaces started construction in January this year and were progressing as planned [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,180 yuan, down 10 yuan; Tianjin was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average was 3,269 yuan, down 7 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, down 10 yuan; Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average was 3,312 yuan, down 8 yuan [10]. - Tangshan steel billet: The price was 2,940 yuan, down 30 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Main variety spreads: The coil - rebar spread was 90 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,050 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 792 yuan, down 2 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - based): The price was 812 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: Australia was 10.83 yuan, up 0.36 yuan; Brazil was 24.39 yuan, up 0.62 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 104.50 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Platts index (CFR, 62%): The price was 105.10 yuan, down 0.10 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,070 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The trading volume was 912,064 lots, an increase of 110,175 lots. The open interest was 1,631,133 lots, a decrease of 24,336 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The closing price of the active contract was 3,277 yuan, with a decline of 0.18%. The trading volume was 308,474 lots, a decrease of 18,941 lots. The open interest was 1,196,921 lots, a decrease of 20,253 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.76%. The trading volume was 245,541 lots, a decrease of 16,754 lots. The open interest was 480,907 lots, an increase of 9,616 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report presented various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil plate, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports and 247 steel mills, and steel mill production indicators such as blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates [16][21][29]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply increased, with weekly output up 7.96 tons and inventory at a relatively high level. Demand improved, with weekly apparent demand up 14.42 tons, but mostly due to speculative demand. With poor fundamentals and low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and demand performance should be monitored [38]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: Supply increased, with weekly output up 2.35 tons and high inventory pressure. Demand improved, with weekly apparent demand up 10.83 tons, but the improvement space was limited. With limited fundamental improvement and low valuation, it was expected to continue low - level oscillations, and steel mill production should be monitored [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern did not improve, and inventory continued to increase. Although demand rebounded, its sustainability was uncertain, and supply remained high. With short - term support from arbitrage logic switching, it was expected to maintain a volatile trend, and steel performance should be monitored [39].
钢材&铁矿石日报：产业格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行-20251120
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-11-20 10:08