Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit may be further reduced, the overall production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. In the short - term, the domestic corn spot is relatively strong, but there is a potential selling pressure later. The corn starch spot is also strong due to the strength of corn, but the 01 starch on the futures market is expected to decline in the short - term [4][6][7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Futures Disk - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2168, 2237, and 2264 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 8 and percentage drops of - 0.32%, - 0.36%, - 0.35%. Their trading volumes are 405,905, 43,153, 1,958 with volume changes of - 4.81%, - 6.73%, 47.89%, and open interests are 932,364, 322,392, 16,703 with changes of - 1.44%, 4.02%, 0.57% [2]. - For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2473, 2552, 2607 respectively, with price drops of - 7, - 8, - 5 and percentage drops of - 0.28%, - 0.31%, - 0.19%. Their trading volumes are 88,848, 889, 72 with volume changes of - 18.46%, 3.37%, 100.00%, and open interests are 219,992, 6,328, 551 with changes of 1.29%, 1.61%, 5.76% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 1995 yuan, Songyuan Jiji is 2070 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2350 yuan, Shouguang is 2280 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2210 yuan, Nantong Port is 2320 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2370 yuan. The price in Shouguang increased by 10 yuan, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is - 269, - 194, 86, 16, 42, 56, 106 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2680 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Cargill is 2800 yuan, Yufeng is 2890 yuan, Jinyu Corn is 2800 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2900 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2820 yuan. All prices remained unchanged, and the corresponding basis is 128, 148, 248, 338, 248, 348, 268 [2]. Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 69 with a change of 1, C05 - C09 is - 27 with no change, C09 - C01 is 96 with a change of - 1 [2]. - Starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 79 with a change of 1, CS05 - CS09 is - 55 with a change of - 3, CS09 - CS01 is 134 with a change of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of 3, CS01 - C01 is 305 with no change, CS05 - C05 is 315 with no change [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment Corn - The U.S. corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the yield per unit will be further reduced, the production remains high. The import profit of foreign corn is declining, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2137 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2210 yuan, and the northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is still large. The wheat price in North China has risen to around 2500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, making corn more cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. Some enterprises are building inventory in the northeast. The supply of northeast corn is low recently, and traders' hoarding sentiment is strong. The 01 corn futures contract is oscillating weakly, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6]. Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2770 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also strong. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 110.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still making good profits. The 01 starch futures contract is oscillating narrowly following the corn, but the North China corn price may decline in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. It is expected that the 01 starch futures contract still has room to decline in the short - term [7]. Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. For example, on November 20, 2025, for the C2605 - P - 2160.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2237, and the closing price is 20.50; for the C2601 - P - 2080.DCE option, the underlying asset price is 2168, and the closing price is 3.00 [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread between the corn starch and corn 01 contracts [13][15][19].
玉米淀粉日报-20251120
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-20 10:02