Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 20, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. LU fuel oil and coking coal dropped over 3%, while pure benzene rose over 2%. Different futures varieties have their own supply - demand fundamentals and market trends, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends, except for urea which is expected to be slightly stronger [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Overall Futures Market - Price Movement: As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts were mixed. LU fuel oil, coking coal dropped over 3%, industrial silicon, glass, etc. dropped over 2%. Pure benzene rose over 2%, and styrene, eggs, apples rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while some treasury bond futures rose [5][6]. - Fund Flow: As of 15:25 on November 20, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (3.693 billion), SSE 500 2512 (2.605 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.334 billion), and flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 (2.804 billion), ten - year treasury bond 2512 (852 million), thirty - year treasury bond 2512 (748 million) [6]. 3.2. Specific Futures Varieties 3.2.1. Copper - Supply: In November, 5 smelters are expected to be under maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. But production may increase as some enterprises resume production in October. Higher copper prices lead to more scrap copper supply, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [8]. - Demand: Higher copper prices limit downstream consumption. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's unforged copper and copper product exports were 134,304 tons, up 67.8% year - on - year, and imports were 440,000 tons, down 13.5% year - on - year [8]. - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory has been continuously increasing, currently 98.63% higher year - on - year. The copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Ningde Times' production is expected to resume after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 14, the weekly production rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher year - on - year [10]. - Demand: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 21.1% and 20% year - on - year respectively. The market is optimistic about energy storage demand. As of November 14, lithium carbonate inventory decreased for several weeks, and the warehouse receipt quantity has dropped significantly [10]. - Price Trend: After several days of increase, the price increase has slowed down. Wait for further verification of demand [10]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + eight countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increase in Q1 2024. The US crude oil production is at a high level. Geopolitical issues may cause supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya, but overall, the supply is in an oversupply situation [11]. - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and the EIA data shows that refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The market is worried about demand as the US ISM manufacturing index has declined for eight consecutive months [11]. - Price Trend: The price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased to 29.0%. In November, the expected production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil, and the production rate will remain low [14]. - Demand: The downstream demand will further weaken as the cold wave comes and road construction ends in the north, and the increase in southern projects is limited [14]. - Price Trend: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. 3.2.5. PP - Supply: On November 20, the PP enterprise production rate increased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawing increased. New capacity has been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15][16]. - Demand: The downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving orders are limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [15][16]. - Price Trend: It is expected to be weak and volatile under the unchanged supply - demand pattern [16]. 3.2.6. Plastic - Supply: On November 20, the plastic production rate remained at about 89%. New capacity has been put into operation [17]. - Demand: The PE downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The agricultural film is in the late peak season, and the packaging film orders are decreasing [17]. - Price Trend: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [17]. 3.2.7. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate decreased to 78.51%. New capacity has been put into operation, and some maintenance devices are about to end [19]. - Demand: The downstream production rate is low. The concern about exporting to India has been alleviated, but the anti - dumping duty is about to be implemented, and the BIS policy has limited impact [19]. - Inventory: The social inventory is still high, and the inventory pressure is large [19]. - Price Trend: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [19]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Supply: In October, China's coal imports decreased. The production of domestic raw coal and coking coal increased. The anti -内卷 policy is expected to keep the supply in a tight - balance pattern [20]. - Inventory: Mine and coking enterprise inventories are decreasing, while steel mill inventories are increasing [20]. - Demand: Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has decreased due to slow price increases and increased losses. Steel mill production and hot metal output have increased [20]. - Price Trend: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand has become loose. Follow - up attention should be paid to the end - of - year production restrictions [20][21]. 3.2.9. Urea - Supply: The production of upstream factories is resuming, and the daily production is over 200,000 tons, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price [22]. - Demand: The downstream storage demand provides support. The compound fertilizer factory production rate has increased, and other industrial demands such as melamine have also increased [22]. - Inventory: The inventory has been continuously decreasing [22]. - Price Trend: It is expected to be slightly stronger with volatile trends [22].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251120
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-20 09:59