GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-20 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) [3][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant reduction in net cash outflow from operating activities and a rapid increase in overseas orders, indicating strong demand in the infrastructure sector [2][5]. - The forecast for EPS has been adjusted downward for 2025-2027, now projected at 1.55, 1.56, and 1.59 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.0% for 2025 [3][4]. - The target price is set at 12.04 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 7.8 times for 2025 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while revenue fell by 3.9% to 728.4 billion yuan [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 8.77%, down 0.39 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 2.03% [4][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in accounts receivable, which rose by 20.2% year-on-year to 246.16 billion yuan [4][5]. Order and Contract Insights - New contracts signed in Q1-Q3 2025 totaled 1.5188 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with overseas contracts surging by 94.5% [5][19]. - The report notes that the company has a strong presence in various infrastructure sectors, including railways, highways, and airports, with significant growth in new contracts for these areas [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current dividend yield is 3.8%, with a PB ratio of 0.39, indicating a low valuation compared to historical levels [2][6]. - The report provides a comparison of CRCC's valuation metrics with peers, showing a PE of 5.1 for 2025, which is below the industry average [3][22].