铁合金日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness, and the supply and demand were both weak, but the cost side provided some support. It was not advisable to chase short positions. For silicomanganese, it was expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the background of weak supply and demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Futures Data: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5446, down 58 from the previous day and 134 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 315,918 (an increase of 83,681) and an open interest of 165,626 (an increase of 22,700). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5614, down 28 from the previous day and 142 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 148,657 (a decrease of 63,593) and an open interest of 438,614 (an increase of 2,355) [2]. - Spot Data: For ferrosilicon, the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese, the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The manganese ore spot in Tianjin was generally stable [2]. - Basis/Spread Data: The basis and spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 168, down 30 from the previous day and up 8 from the previous week [2]. - Raw Material Data: The manganese ore in Tianjin was generally stable, with the price of Australian lump increasing by 0.2 from the previous week, and the price of South African semi - carbonate remaining unchanged. The prices of small - sized blue charcoal in different regions remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - Trading Strategy - Ferrosilicon: On the 20th, the spot price was stable with a slight weakness. The supply was expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance in Qinghai. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was generally stable with a slight strength. It was not advisable to chase short positions [5]. - Silicomanganese: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable, and the silicomanganese spot was stable with a slight weakness. The supply decreased slightly as the price fell. The demand had a downward expectation due to low steel profits. The cost was increased because of low port inventory and rising overseas quotes. It was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5]. - Important Information: On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate Mn37.12% at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46% was 41 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump Mn42%Fe 3.6% was 40 yuan/ton - degree. In October 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 24,359.305 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.18%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative exports were 317,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.37% [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the ferroalloy electricity price, and the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [10][12][14][16][18][21]