Guohai Securities·2025-11-20 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong growth in net operating income and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by resilient domestic tourism demand, high growth in cross-border/international business, and a one-time gain from the sale of MMYT.O shares [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism, the development of inbound tourism, and the continuous optimization of its global OTA platform, which is anticipated to drive sustained growth [6][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan (YoY +16%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.9 billion yuan (YoY +194%) [4]. - The breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Transportation ticketing: 6.3 billion yuan (YoY +12%) - Accommodation bookings: 8.0 billion yuan (YoY +18%) - Travel vacation: 1.6 billion yuan (YoY +3%) - Business travel management: 0.76 billion yuan (YoY +15%) [4]. Domestic Business - The diverse travel demand continues to drive steady growth in the domestic market, with significant increases in bookings from remote areas, such as Urumqi and Lhasa, which saw nearly 30% growth [6]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with several entertainment industry companies to further boost revenue from younger travelers [6]. Outbound Business - The outbound business is experiencing steady growth, with cross-border flight capacity recovering to 88% of 2019 levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel increasing by nearly 20% [6][7]. - Chinese tourists are expanding their travel radius, showing increased interest in long-haul destinations, which supports the industry's recovery [6]. Global OTA Business - The international OTA platform's total bookings grew by approximately 60% YoY, with the Asia-Pacific region being a significant contributor [7]. - The inbound tourism segment saw over 100% growth in bookings, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining the primary source of inbound tourists [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net operating income of 61.9 billion yuan in 2025, 70.1 billion yuan in 2026, and 79.6 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 31.8 billion yuan, 20.4 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is 48.56 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 10.8 [9][10].