煤焦日报：偏空氛围蔓延，煤焦继续下挫-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke: The short - term fundamentals of coke have improved, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. There are still concerns about demand, and the market's divergence on the previous major upward driver, "cost - side support," has increased. The coke futures are in a volatile correction. As of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants decreased by 0.51 tons week - on - week to 109.17 tons, while the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.66 tons week - on - week to 236.88 tons. The fourth price increase of coke was difficult to implement, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with expected improvement in coking enterprise profits [6][32]. - Coking Coal: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction mainly due to increased divergence on the supply side. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved last week. Also, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry's anti - involution since July. The strong supply - side expectation of coking coal has slowed down. After the coking coal futures reached the upper limit of the oscillation range at the end of October, the driving force for further upward breakthrough was insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the contraction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be realized, and attention should be paid to the support of the main contract at the lower limit of the oscillation range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On November 19, the Office of the Command for in - depth Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiangsu Province issued a notice to start a yellow alert for heavy pollution weather in 7 cities including Xuzhou from 10:00 on November 20 [8]. - On November 20, the prices of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,645 yuan/ton and fat coal at 1,630 yuan/ton, both ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 11.83% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,600 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | - 3.61% | +7.38% | - 4.76% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][17]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - Other Charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][31]. Market Outlook The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term improvement but limited sustainability of coke fundamentals and the continuous correction of coking coal due to supply - side divergence [32].