银河期货粕类日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the international soybean market is currently in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The US soybean market shows a relatively strong trend due to increased exports, but the Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are under downward pressure, with soybean meal performing stronger than rapeseed meal. The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for both single - side trading and arbitrage, and to use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean oil market rumors of postponed biodiesel incentive measures, leading to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, and the US soybean futures price showed high - level fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices declined, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both also declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, but the US soybean futures price faced downward pressure after the report. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply factors are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean exports and crushing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. Overall, the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively loose [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a loose supply - demand situation, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing提货量. As of November 14, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, the operating rate was 57.15%, soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 1.87% from the previous week and an increase of 40.92% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors The macro - economic impact on the market is expected to be limited after the short - term reaction, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. The US government ended the shutdown, and China - US negotiations sent positive signals. China resumed the soybean import qualifications of three US companies, but the impact on the long - term market supply is uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and soybean meal performs stronger than rapeseed meal. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal will fluctuate, and those of rapeseed meal may continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [8].