黑色金属日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (representing a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the market) [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, and the cost support is loosening. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether favorable policies will be introduced in the real estate sector [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are gradually becoming looser, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The bottom - support expectations for silicon manganese and silicon iron have shifted downward, and the prices are under pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Performance: The steel market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel improved this week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory started to decline [2]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills are generally in a loss state. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are strong, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume has declined, and port inventory is in an accumulating trend [3]. - Demand: The apparent demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The molten iron is in a seasonal production - cut trend, and there is still room for further decline in the future [3]. Coke - Production and Inventory: Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream customers are purchasing on - demand, and traders' purchasing意愿 is general [4]. - Price Outlook: The coke market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4]. Coking Coal - Production and Inventory: Coking coal production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly [6]. - Price Outlook: The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the high expectation of coal mine supply guarantee and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [6]. Silicon Manganese - Cost and Inventory: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. Manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating [7]. - Supply and Demand: Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remains at a high level. The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level [7]. Silicon Iron - Cost and Inventory: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Silicon iron supply remains at a high level, and on - balance inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - Demand: The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level, export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the production of magnesium metal has increased [8].