震荡运行：PP日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing, with the overall supply - demand pattern unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost and season, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to about 25.5% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, after the end of the US government shutdown, the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to strengthen, and the crude oil price rebounded after the decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus became more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently. The downstream is in the off - season, and the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, with no large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with a minimum price of 6,368 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 6,431 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 6,400 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.34%. The position volume decreased by 2,378 lots to 617,955 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6,200 - 6,560 yuan per ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]