期现价格共振走强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices opened low and closed flat, while spot prices continued to rise. With sufficient pending orders from factories, short - term prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias. Although high daily production suppresses the upside of the futures market, improved downstream demand and positive market sentiment have led to a continuous rebound in the futures market. Overall, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, but caution is advised regarding price corrections at high levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Period - Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1661 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closed flat at 1665 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume was 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 419 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,062 lots [2]. Spot - Spot prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,550 to 1,600 yuan/ton, with most increases between 10 and 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price was in Hebei [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both rose today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the January contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.34% [11]. Inventory and Orders - As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from the previous week, a 3.13% decrease. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a 7.65% decrease [12]. Downstream - From November 15 - 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous week [14].