国投期货能源日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market remaining mainly weak in a volatile manner [2] - The recent trend of low-sulfur fuel oil being stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil continues. The low-sulfur market is supported by multiple factors on the supply side, while the high-sulfur market may see a relatively weak trend continue in the medium term [2] - The cost support for asphalt continues to weaken, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on it [3] - The LPG market is expected to be bullish in a volatile manner due to the tightening of supply and demand [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC01 contract down 1.94%. The US is promoting a Russia-Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels last week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and a strong diesel market. A 490,000-ton low-sulfur export quota has been converted to a refined oil quota. The high-sulfur market has geopolitical uncertainties, and medium-term supply is expected to be loose [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel. Weekly shipments have been decreasing, and inventory de-stocking has slowed. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a negative impact on the market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The expected import cost of international LPG in December will increase. The profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has improved, and the demand from the combustion end has increased. The market is expected to be bullish in a volatile manner [4]