原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行-20251120

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation. The decision of OPEC+ to increase production in December will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, while the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year will be unexpectedly relieved. With the end of the consumption peak season and concerns about demand, along with OPEC+ accelerating production and increased exports from the Middle East, the supply - surplus pattern has become more of a consensus. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Their next meeting is on November 30. This will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The end of the crude oil demand peak season, EIA data shows an unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, but due to increased net exports, the decline in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near the historical high. India may reduce imports of Russian oil due to a potential new tariff agreement with the US. US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers plan to suspend purchasing Russian oil for December delivery [1]. - Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries led to the suspension of crude oil processing at the Ryazan refinery in Russia, and European gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and armed conflicts in Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [1]. - Negative factors such as the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US October ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. - OPEC has adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects that the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter will slow down while supply will further increase [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are also rumors of the Trump administration secretly coordinating a new framework to end the Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in the risk premium of Russian crude oil [1]. b) Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.66% to 455.5 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 451.8 yuan per ton and a maximum of 458.4 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,984 to 39,074 lots [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报 adjusted the global oil shortage in the third quarter of 2025 from 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and adjusted the global oil shortage in 2026 from 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the forecast of global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while previously it was expected to peak in 2030. The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply growth rate forecast for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, and for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. d) Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 14, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels and 5.11% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 227,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 171,000 barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.215 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 698,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October crude oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week ending November 14 decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day, still near the historical high [4]. e) Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.641 million barrels per day, a 1.23% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from lower to higher than the same period last year [4]. - US gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.54% to 8.528 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.839 million barrels per day, a 1.21% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.38% to 3.882 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.798 million barrels per day, a 0.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 2.95% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].