国投期货农产品日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy (★★★): Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - Hold (★☆☆): Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - Neutral (☆☆☆): Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].