国投期货软商品日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Paper pulp: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Sugar: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Apple: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Timber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - 20 - rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, presenting their current market situations, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities while also highlighting some potential trading points and market factors to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is intensively listed and demand is average, pressuring prices, but the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons and an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to the four - year average. The cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with spinning mills having few new orders, reduced operation rates, and weaving mills mainly making rigid purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and had better transactions. The USDA November report was bearish, with the US cotton production in the 25/26 season significantly increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and the sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting the sugar - making season, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly operating. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there was still pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's estimated production. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, there were sporadic transactions of apples in cold storage, mainly medium and small fruits, and the price slightly increased. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of traders and fruit farmers to hold back sales is high, which may affect the inventory - clearing speed. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - clearing situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price slightly decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price slightly increased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price increased. Globally, the natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to slowly rise. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, the spot inventory is increasing, the cost support is stable, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR&BR [6] Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to decline. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a cumulative increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The domestic port inventory is continuously increasing, the supply is still in a relatively loose situation, the pulp demand continues to be weak, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. After the basis widened and then significantly narrowed, the price continuously declined due to the generally weak fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to increase. The domestic spot price remained weak, and traders' import willingness decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. Traders' pressure has increased, and it is expected that imports will not significantly increase in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The original inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory supports the price to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]