【冠通期货研究报告】基本面弱势调整

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has a weak fundamental adjustment. The probability of a December interest rate cut remains low, inventories are continuously increasing, and copper prices are weak. Future attention should be paid to the gradual release of US economic data [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Copper opened higher and closed lower today, showing strength during the session. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, the enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are gradually resuming production, and after the copper price rises, the production enthusiasm increases, and the output is expected to rise. The supply of scrap copper increases after the copper price rises, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. In terms of demand, the increase in the copper price restricts downstream consumption. Traditional industries have pre - empted demand due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and power battery new energy sectors, downstream demand performance is poor. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%; imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing and is currently 98.63% higher year - on - year [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, showing strength during the session. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 70 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On November 19, 2025, the LME official price was $10,810/ton, and the spot premium was - $26/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.37 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 55,000 tons, a decrease of 3,369 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 157,900 tons, an increase of 4,450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 391,700 short tons, an increase of 4,771 short tons from the previous period [9]