山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be in short - term weak oscillation, mid - term high - level oscillation, and long - term step - up trend. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1][6] - For both gold and silver, it is recommended that conservative investors wait and watch, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals faced resistance and pressure. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.22%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.75%. [1] - Core Logic - Short - term Hedging: The results of the China - US talks have been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment situation is weakening, inflation is moderate, Fed officials are hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has been adjusted. [1] - Hedging Attribute: The results and consensus of China - US economic and trade consultations have been announced, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. [1] - Monetary Attribute: The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials believed it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. The number of continuing jobless claims in the US has soared, and builder confidence has been low for 19 consecutive months. More Fed policymakers are cautious about a December interest rate cut. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December has dropped to around 30%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strong. [1] - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. [1] - Data - Prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4078.30 per ounce, up 0.27% from the previous day and down 2.93% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4126.95 per ounce, up 1.63% from the previous day and down 0.24% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 935.46 yuan per gram, down 0.16% from the previous day and down 2.68% from the previous week; Gold T + D closed at 930.00 yuan per gram, down 0.46% from the previous day and down 2.99% from the previous week. [2] - Positions and Inventories: Comex gold positions were 493,748 lots; Shanghai Gold's main contract positions increased by 85.01% from the previous day and 23.36% from the previous week; Gold TD positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day and 3.07% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week. [2] - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Gold totaled 89,446 lots, a decrease of 1,166 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 17,856 lots, a decrease of 568 lots. [4] 3.2 Silver - Core Logic: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [6] - Data - Prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $51.07 per ounce, up 1.04% from the previous day and down 4.07% from the previous week; London silver closed at $52.20 per ounce, up 3.78% from the previous day and up 1.29% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 12,050.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.81% from the previous day and down 4.27% from the previous week; Silver T + D closed at 12,030.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.99% from the previous day and down 4.24% from the previous week. [7] - Positions and Inventories: Comex silver positions were 163,837 lots; Shanghai Silver's main contract positions increased by 2.76% from the previous day and 9.24% from the previous week; Silver TD positions increased by 0.28% from the previous day and 1.04% from the previous week. LBMA silver inventory was 26,255 tons, up 6.81% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 14,385 tons, down 3.28% from the previous week; Shanghai Silver inventory was 535 tons, down 8.38% from the previous week; Silver inventory in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 775 tons, down 5.80% from the previous week; the total visible inventory was 41,991 tons, down 1.36% from the previous week. [7] - Net Positions of Futures Companies: The top 10 net long positions of futures companies in Shanghai Silver totaled 127,521 lots, a decrease of 1,753 lots; the top 10 net short positions totaled 43,645 lots, an increase of 333 lots. [8] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute - Interest Rates: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, all down 0.25% from the previous value. [9] - Other Indicators: The Fed's total assets are $6631.098 billion, up $74.55 billion from the previous value; M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.07% from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44%, up 0.41% from the previous day and 1.67% from the previous week; the US dollar index is 99.60, up 0.06% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.37, up 2.78% from the previous day and down 5.41% from the previous week. [9] - Geopolitical and Market Indicators - Hedging Attribute: The geopolitical risk index is 90.76, down 1.74% from the previous week; the VIX index is 23.66, down 4.17% from the previous day and up 35.12% from the previous week. [12] - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index is 299.24, down 1.36% from the previous day and 1.03% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1109, up 0.01% from the previous week. [12] - Central Bank Gold Reserves: China's central bank gold reserves are 2304.46 tons, up 0.09% from the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's are 36362.76 tons, unchanged. [11][12] - IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves and Gold - to - Reserves Ratio: The US dollar accounts for 57.80% of IMF foreign exchange reserves, up 0.88% from the previous value; the euro accounts for 19.83%, down 0.99%; the RMB accounts for 2.18%, down 0.04%. The global gold - to - foreign - exchange - reserves ratio is 22.18%, up 4.11% from the previous value; China's is 6.78%, up 4.40%; the US's is 78.64%, up 0.86%. [12]