Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oscillation, lacking clear short - term drivers. The geopolitical factor, especially the situation in the Caribbean and potential US actions against Venezuela, may become the short - term main line [1][3]. - The strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US, with the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, has led to the emergence of the blending oil logic, which may drive the upward movement of aromatic hydrocarbon products such as styrene, pure benzene, and polyester [1]. - Some energy - chemical products are running independently of crude oil. For example, methanol is still under pressure from high inventory, but there is a mid - term long - making logic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The recent large - scale fluctuations in crude oil were caused by the continuous strengthening of refined oil products in Europe and the US and the weakening expectations in the EIA monthly report. Currently, the short - term drivers have not changed significantly. Although the inventory is increasing, the market reaction is flat. The supply shortage of gasoline and diesel may gradually improve. The geopolitical situation in the Caribbean is heating up, and the potential US action against Venezuela has not been priced in the market [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [3]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The recent strong performance of styrene is due to the improvement of short - term supply - demand after device maintenance and the blending oil logic driven by the strong performance of refined oil products in Europe and the US. However, there is a mid - term oversupply and seasonal inventory accumulation problem [5][8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly level and look for opportunities to cover short positions after the daily - level rebound [8]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The short - term contradiction of rubber is not prominent. The seasonal inventory accumulation in the peak season has just started, and the focus is on the subsequent inventory accumulation rate [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15200 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The focus is on the driving force from the cost side of butadiene, which also faces the problem of potential inventory swelling [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The contradiction in the polyester industry is not large. After the hype of production reduction news fades, the focus is on whether the blending oil logic can drive the upward movement. Also, pay attention to the geopolitical risks in the Caribbean [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 6745 [17]. (6) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the focus is on the blending oil logic and geopolitical risks in the Caribbean after the weakening of production reduction expectations [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to hold long positions in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4655 [20]. (7) PP - Logic: High supply pressure continues due to the commissioning of Guangxi Petrochemical and the increase in PP operation rate, and downstream demand is weak. The focus is on the cost - side driving force of crude oil [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [24]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The large - scale shutdown of Iranian devices has not occurred, and the inventory in ports is still at a high level, which suppresses the market. However, the domestic supply - demand structure has improved. The long - making opportunity depends on the implementation of Iranian gas restrictions and the market breaking through the pressure level. The geopolitical factor may also provide a long - making opportunity [26][28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and short - term show a downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040 or take the initiative to stop profit. Try to go long after the short - term structure reverses [28]. (9) PVC - Logic: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from the real - estate industry is weak, so there is no upward driving force [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. (11) Plastic - Logic: There is a pattern of high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an oscillation structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1195 [41]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: High supply pressure persists due to new capacity and high operation rate, and demand is weak. There is no upward driving force in supply - demand [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].
欧美成品油裂解价差走强新高，调油逻辑继续驱动芳烃
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-11-20 12:03