天富期货碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a "strong reality, strong expectation" situation, with demand - driven growth and short - term price fluctuations mainly due to capital. Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are affected by factors such as commodity price declines and the weakening of previous positive news, with both facing supply - demand imbalances and high inventories [1][8][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2601 dropped 0.32% to 98,980 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, with the total open interest exceeding one million lots [1]. - Core Logic: The core driver is demand expectation. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. There is a rush to install power cells in the new energy vehicle market due to the phased - out of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policies, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 60% from November to December. The energy - storage battery installation is expected to grow by over 40% in 2026. The weekly inventory reduction also confirms strong demand. Recently, capital has become the main driver of price [1]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures declined. The 2601 contract was still under bullish control, but there was a large - scale reduction of positions in the afternoon, causing the price to correct. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to fluctuate in the short term, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 87,220 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Avoid contrarian trading when the futures price corrects [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [8]. - Core Logic: The impact of the news of silicone joint price - support on industrial silicon futures has gradually faded. The overall commodity decline and the weak fundamental situation of industrial silicon, including weak supply - demand and high inventory, have led to continued pressure on the short - term market [8]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures decreased. The 2601 contract continued to decline with position reduction, indicating bullish control. There was an entry opportunity using the "Three - Line Resonance Method" at 10:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:1 to less than 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a short - term weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the large price fluctuations affected by policies and news, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [8]. - Concerns: The planned 30% production reduction of silicone starting from December 1st, if implemented successfully, will be a significant negative factor for industrial silicon. There are also more winter - related disturbing factors such as environmental protection production restrictions [8]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Market Trend: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract 2601 dropped 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price [10]. - Core Logic: The positive impact of industrial silicon on polycrystalline silicon yesterday has faded, and combined with the overall commodity decline, polycrystalline silicon has declined. The supply - demand situation of polycrystalline silicon has not changed much, with weak supply - demand and lack of driving forces. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently [10][13]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of polycrystalline silicon futures slightly increased. The 2601 contract saw bulls taking profits in the morning, and then it turned to bearish control with a large - scale increase in positions in the afternoon. There was an entry opportunity using the "First K Breakthrough Method" at 13:35, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle shows a weak trend, while the 2 - hour cycle remains bullish, with the long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton [13]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to large price fluctuations affected by policies and news and still being in the oscillation range in the 2 - hour cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Intraday operations can refer to the 8:30 morning live - broadcast and the Band Winner indicator [13].