【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：震荡运行-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the start - up rate dropping, expected production in November decreasing, and some refineries planning to switch to producing residue. Demand is also weakening due to factors such as cold weather and limited project increments. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries is at a low level. Considering these factors, it is expected that the futures price of asphalt will oscillate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The start - up rate of asphalt last week decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production of domestic asphalt in November is 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) from the previous month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) from the same period last year. The start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years. Due to factors such as sanctions not affecting Russian oil production and potential peace frameworks, crude oil prices fell. Some refineries in Shandong plan to switch to producing residue this week, and the start - up rate of asphalt will remain low. With the arrival of cold snaps, demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited. The basis in Shandong is at a neutral level, and the spot price is stable, so the futures price of asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 0.33% to 3,058 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,976 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,062 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 8,998 to 172,183 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 28 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residue, and the asphalt start - up rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to September, the national investment in highway construction decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared to January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% in January - September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% in January - September 2025. As of the week of November 14, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate dropping by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point compared to January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion less due to a high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4] 3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared to the week of November 7, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]