银河期货航运日报-20251120

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has differences in views on the spot freight rate trend in December. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain low in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the December quotes. Although shipping companies have improved long - term cargo and opened the December GRI window, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. The demand is expected to gradually improve from November to December, and the supply capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On November 20, EC2512 closed at 1775.7 points, up 0.7% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported 1417 USD/TEU on November 14, up 7.11% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported on Monday was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% month - on - month, lower than expected, mainly due to the decline in MSK freight rates [5]. - Logic Analysis: In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, and they have opened the December GRI window. However, the market has differences in the implementation expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 26.55/28.33 million TEU, and in January 2026 it is 29.58 million TEU. The capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. Geopolitical factors such as the Israel - Gaza conflict may also affect the market [6]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, due to differences in implementation expectations, the short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Geopolitical news: The Israeli military's air strikes on multiple places in Gaza have caused 25 deaths, and Hamas has condemned the Israeli military's attacks on multiple places in the Gaza Strip [7][8]. 3.3 Related Figures The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European Line index and the SCFIS US West Line index, the SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates on various routes such as Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, and Shanghai - Europe, as well as the basis of EC12 and EC02 contracts [10][11][13][17].