甲醇日评20251120：短期供需压力难解，关注预期变动-20251120

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol lies in the short - term difficulty in demand growth, and the pressure of supply in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down the spot and futures prices. For the 01 contract, it is not recommended for unilateral futures operations, but instead, it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility. For the far - month contracts, the outlook is relatively optimistic as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and a reversal in supply expectations could provide a good rebound impetus for methanol [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2013 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) to 2150 yuan/ton, and MA09 increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.09%) to 2206 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased, such as in Shandong (-22.50 yuan/ton, -1.04%), Guangdong (-20 yuan/ton, -1.00%), and Taicang (-10 yuan/ton, -0.50%), while prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.26%) [1] - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.82%) to 615 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.45%) to 700 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 increased by 7.50 yuan/ton (1.10%) to 690 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 80.30 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) to -1330 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-52.49%) to 36.20 yuan/ton, East China MTO increased by 42 yuan/ton (10.81%) to -346.57 yuan/ton, acetic acid increased by 11 yuan/ton (2.28%) to 492.72 yuan/ton, MTBE increased by 20 yuan/ton (7.71%) to 279.40 yuan/ton, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at -246.00 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2030 yuan/ton, closing at 2013 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,387,439 lots and an open interest of 1,450,621 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to weather and raw material supply [1] 4. Trading Strategy - For the 01 contract, sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility and pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1]