资产配置日报：不寻常的缩量-20251120

Market Overview - On November 20, the stock market opened high but closed lower, with major indices declining and risk assets weakening, while the bond market also showed weak performance due to news impacts [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - The market sentiment was initially optimistic due to Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings and positive news regarding broker mergers, but this optimism did not last, leading to a decline in major indices [2] - The trading volume continued to shrink, with the turnover rate of the Wind All A index dropping from 1.94% on November 18 to 1.70% on November 20, indicating a weakening trading willingness [2] Index Support Levels - The Wind All A index closed at 6228 points, close to a significant support level at 6225 points, which may provide stability to the index [3] - If the index breaks below this level, it could indicate a loss of confidence among investors, leading to further adjustments [3] Sector Performance - The lithium mining sector rebounded, contributing to a 1.70% increase in the Wind index, although the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain [3] - AI computing power continues to attract some capital, with the optical module and circuit board indices rising by 0.68% and 0.66%, respectively [3] - The banking sector benefited from risk-averse logic and expectations of increased allocations from insurance funds, recovering from previous declines [3] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has receded, creating pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector [4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index continued to decline despite Nvidia's strong performance, indicating a challenging environment for tech stocks in Hong Kong [4] Bond Market Movements - The bond market experienced fluctuations driven by news, with long-term interest rates slightly declining initially but later rising due to speculation about new real estate stimulus policies [4] - The yields on 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds rose by approximately 0.2 basis points to 1.81% and 1.87%, respectively [5] Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - After the Double Eleven shopping festival, the funding environment remains weak, influenced by a high volume of government bond issuances [6] - The market saw a reversal in fund flows, with both precious metals and new energy sectors experiencing net outflows, reflecting a high profit-taking sentiment among investors [7] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market showed overall weak sentiment, with most sectors experiencing pullbacks due to receding rate cut expectations and fundamental pressures [6] - Precious metals saw a significant narrowing of gains after two days of rebounds, while industrial metals displayed mixed performance [6] Non-Farm Payroll Impact - The release of stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data led to increased volatility in precious metals, with gold prices initially dropping but quickly recovering [8] - The black coal futures market faced significant pressure due to weak demand, leading to a high auction failure rate [8]