综合晨报：美国9月非农超预期-20251121

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to significant changes in market risk preferences and various asset price fluctuations. The market is in a high - volatility state, and different industries face different situations and investment opportunities [2][16]. - In the bond market, November is mainly in a volatile state, but the probability of a decline in December is relatively high. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hinted at not supporting a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Cook warned of private credit risks. The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The short - term market volatility is difficult to reduce, and there may still be a decline [14][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Goolsbee is worried about premature and significant rate cuts. The US September non - farm payrolls data made the market's expectation of a December rate cut slightly increase, but it is still less than 50%. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of correction [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance. The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with new employment exceeding 100,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting foreign trade quality improvement. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. Market rumors of new real - estate stimulus policies may have a positive impact on the economy and prices if implemented. It is recommended not to add long positions in the short term [25][26][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The November LPR remained unchanged. The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a decline in December is relatively high. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. US bio - fuel policy uncertainty increased, and CBOT soybeans declined. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and South American weather [33][34]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is considering delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel incentives. Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20.5% month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Wens Co., Ltd. shut down 7 pig farms for capacity adjustment. In the short - term, it is recommended to short LH2601 and LH2603, and in the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity to lay out LH2607 and far - month contracts at low prices [37][38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 442,500 tons week - on - week. Although the current destocking is good, the subsequent inventory pressure is still large, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate slightly decreased, and inventory decreased. The rice - flour price difference is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [41][42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of northern ports increased, and the inventory of southern ports decreased. Corn prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The power plant's winter storage is coming to an end. Coal prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual temperature and daily consumption in December [46]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - US Steel announced a $3 billion expansion project. Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy changes [47]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released. Polysilicon prices are expected to return to an oscillation state, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities [48][49][51]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "anti - involution" of silicone drove up the industrial silicon futures price, but it is actually a negative factor. It is recommended to stop profiting from short positions in a timely manner [52][53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots first increased and then decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [55][56]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. LME zinc oscillated upward. It is recommended to manage positions well in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [57][59][60]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports decreased significantly in October. Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply adjustment [61][62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown's lithium concentrate auction price was higher than the spot price. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and limits of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [64][65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased by 1.51% on November 20. The CEA price has a strong upward driving force [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory decreased by 14 Bcf week - on - week. Nymex natural gas faces a downward risk [69][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices were relatively strong. It is recommended to adjust in the short term and try to go long at low prices in the long term [71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory at the end of the year. It is recommended not to chase the rise unilaterally and to lay out long positions in far - month contracts and 5 - 9 positive spreads at low prices [73][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was weakly adjusted. It is expected that the subsequent market will oscillate [77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - CMA CGM and AD Ports will expand the Khalifa Port terminal. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at the lower edge of the oscillation range [78][79][80].